Extrapolating Computing
Remember when mainframes did all of the computing? And workstations were dumb terminals docked to the mainframes? The terminals had less power, but were more “mobile.”
Then everyone got a desktop. And the desktop is where you did most of your computing. And you carried around your underpowered laptop, which had to be synced with your desktop, or docked to a big screen, keyboard and mouse to be usable. The laptop had less power, but it was more mobile than the desktop.
Now most early adopters have a laptop as their main computer. And are carrying around their underpowered smartphone, which has to be synced with their laptop on a regular basis. The smartphone has less power, but well, it’s more mobile.
We’ll dock our smartphones to our laptops for a while. But, if we can extrapolate from the history of computing, the laptop is headed for the dustbin.
Which means that Apple will be ok. Google will be ok. But if Windows Mobile is any indicator, Microsoft is in deep, deep trouble.
I don’t agree with your extrapolation. I think the right analogy is a pendulum.
centralized distributed
first the pendulum swung to the centralized size (mainframes) .. then it swung to the distributed side (terminals).. then with the web it swung back to the centralized side (web servers) and now it’s swinging back to the distributed side (richer browsers / AJAX, AIR clients, browser OS’s) but just with more points of distribution.
I think as you have more terminals with data being centralized, there’s going to have to be more computing on the terminals to coordinate and sync everything.
it’s why i run so much software on my mobile phone.
eventually we’ll find a way to centralize a single view across multiple end points… and the pendulum will swing back.
docverse
November 6, 2009 at 6:22 am
Interesting metaphor, but I think people are using mobile devices to augment and access online activities, but not replace their laptops and desktops. While, it’s a highly convenient form factor, but I can’t do a spreadsheet on it, type a note more then 15 words, code, or anything else of “substance”.
Microsoft still has problems, and I think the bigger threat to them is that server-driven software is getting better while traditional client-driven software has maxed out. Do we really need more features in an OS, Word or Outlook?
Mark Rose
November 6, 2009 at 3:07 pm
Some people still use mainframes. Some people still use desktops. Some people will still use laptops. But the average user will, at some point, probably have a smartphone as their only device.
naval
November 6, 2009 at 5:12 pm
so the one model i could definitely see happening is that the smartphone becomes primary device.. but people maintain multiple screens.
There was this IBM project a while ago that aimed to separate out the “computing” parts from the “display” parts…
that way i could take my phone to a meeting and project whatever was on it..
or I could take to my desk and work, where i have crazy 30″ screens so i can do my spreadsheets..
i think the key that unlocks this world will be to decouple display from computing.
docverse
November 6, 2009 at 6:27 pm
Totally agreed – dock your iPhone into a larger display and keyboard for us geeks. But it’s possible that the average person will get by without. Remember that the average global citizen owns a mobile phone but not a computer. For them, a smartphone is a huge upgrade on every level.
naval
November 6, 2009 at 6:43 pm
I think you have to follow the memes, not the modus.
Not only are phones a medium for serving us bi-directional information, but they also leave us the freedom to interact in the physical world.
Laptops are a medium for deeper immersion, when we want to focus only on getting tasks done.
I am willing to bet that any software trying to do both will do neither.
Smart
November 9, 2009 at 5:52 am
[...] Labs; iPhone developer sinc… See here for a concise argument from Naval Ravikant that they will: http://startupboy.com/2009/11/06…Insert a dynamic date hereView All 0 CommentsCannot add comment at this [...]
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